the black swan

What is a black swan? To begin with, it is an improbable event, its consequences are significant, and all explanations that can be offered a posteriori do not take into account chance and only seek to fit the unpredictable into a perfect model. The success of Google and YouTube, and even 9/11, are "black swans." Why do we not recognize the phenomenon of black swans until they occur? According to Taleb, human beings are fixated on finding out the specific, when we should be focusing on generalities. We are unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to reward those who can imagine the Impossible? With irony, irreverence, and a deep understanding of the vagaries of the real world, a specialist in uncertainty and an relentless mathematician leads us through the delightful twists and turns of the improbable.

What is a black swan? To begin with, it is an improbable event, its consequences are significant, and all explanations that can be offered a posteriori do not take into account chance and only seek to fit the unpredictable into a perfect model. The success of Google and YouTube, and even 9/11, are "black swans." Why do we not recognize the phenomenon of black swans until they occur? According to Taleb, human beings are fixated on finding out the specific, when we should be focusing on generalities. We are unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to reward those who can imagine the Impossible? With irony, irreverence, and a deep understanding of the vagaries of the real world, a specialist in uncertainty and an relentless mathematician leads us through the delightful twists and turns of the improbable.